What You Need to Know
• CEO Confidence Index jumped 9 points to 60, the highest level since early 2022.
• 56% of CEOs expect economic conditions to improve in the next six months, up from 33% in Q4 2024.
• Capital spending outlook improved, with 33% planning to increase investments.
• Fewer CEOs see cyber threats, regulatory uncertainty, and supply chain issues as high-impact risks.
• Shift toward in-office work continues, with more CEOs planning fewer remote work options.
Confidence Rebounds Amid Economic Optimism
CEO confidence in the U.S. economy soared in Q1 2025, according to The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™. The index climbed to 60, marking a sharp rise from the cautious optimism seen in 2024 and reaching its highest level in three years. A reading above 50 indicates more positive than negative responses, signaling a significant shift in sentiment among corporate leaders.
“The improvement in CEO Confidence in the first quarter of 2025 was significant and broad-based,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. CEOs expressed optimism about both current economic conditions and their industry’s outlook, with fewer concerns about major business risks compared to late 2024.
Outlook for Growth, Hiring, and Capital Spending
More than half (56%) of CEOs expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, a sharp increase from 33% in Q4 2024. Only 15% expect a downturn, down from 23% last quarter. Industry-specific confidence also surged, with 52% of CEOs expecting their own sectors to improve.
In terms of hiring, 73% of CEOs plan to maintain or expand their workforce, though the percentage of leaders expecting to grow their teams declined to 32% from 40% in Q4. Meanwhile, wage growth remains strong, with 71% of CEOs planning pay raises of 3% or more in the next year.
Capital spending plans also shifted upward—33% of CEOs now plan to increase investment, up from 25% last quarter, reflecting a more optimistic business outlook.
Industry Risks and Return-to-Office Trends
While overall risk concerns eased, geopolitical instability remains a top concern, with 55% of CEOs identifying it as a high-impact risk, up from 52% in Q4. Cyber threats, regulatory uncertainty, and supply chain disruptions have become less of a pressing issue.
Workplace trends continue shifting away from remote work, with more companies planning to move toward a 3-4 day in-office schedule or full in-office setups over the next 12-18 months.
The Oracle Says:
“The Oracle says rising CEO confidence signals a stronger economic outlook, but investors should watch for geopolitical risks and shifting workplace trends that could impact labor markets and corporate performance.”
